Macroeconomic Forecast Ghana

BMI View: There is considerable confusion regarding the start-up date for domestic oil production, with Tullow Oil having stated in early January that output will begin in Q410, while other media reports have indicated that production may be delayed until early 2011. We are inclined to adopt a cautious approach, and have consequently revised our forecasts for growth in 2010 (6.4% now, compared with 6.7% previously) and the cedi (GHS1.3800/US$ by end-10 compared with GHS1.3300/US$ previously).

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