Macroeconomic Forecast Kenya

BMI View: With headline price growth having fallen to 3.2% in September 2010 from a peak of 14.6% in February 2009, we believe that disinflation is in its final months. The easing of price pressures has been the result of food price inflation which has fallen from 44.2% in May 2008 to a nadir of 3.8% in April 2010. While we do not see a return to 2008 levels (which were the result of a chronic drought), we believe that food price growth is likely to head higher, dragging headline inflation with it.

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