Darfur Violence Re-Emerging

ECONOMIC RISK - All About The Oil BMI 's oil and gas team estimate Sudan's oil production will peak in 2015 at 770,000 barrels per day (b/d) before declining steadily to 710,00b/d at the end of our forecast period in 2019. This will be some 25.7% higher than output in 2010 which is expected to reach 565,000b/d. Over the same period, we expect oil consumption to grow by 55.2% from 105,700 b/d to 164,000 b/d. As such oil exports will remain the single most important driver of Sudanese growth over the foreseeable future. The value that Sudan derives from its oil reserves will be limited, however, by its lack of refining capacity, which BMI estimates is currently 122,000b/d. Our short-term economic risk rating is 45.4.

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