Macroeconomic Forecast Nigeria

BMI View: On the back of an upward revision to our average Brent Crude oil forecasts from US$49.00/bbl to US$54.00/bbl, coupled with positive company results that indicate a relatively strong first quarter, we have revised our real GDP growth forecasts. We now see the country slipping into recession in H209 and H110, rather than H109, which should preclude a full-year recession in 2009 and 2010. We have accordingly raised our 2009 forecast to 0.3% from -0.4%, and lowered our 2010 forecast to 2.2% from 2.9%.

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