Q1 2011

BMI View : Libya's prospects for real GDP growth to recover to pre-crisis levels are positive - we expect this to reach 3.2% in 2010 before continuing on an upward trend in the long run to average 4.6% over 2011-14. The economy will to remain dependent on hydrocarbon exports, however we believe that the government's plans to expand its investments in infrastructure projects and an eventual rise in private consumption will improve its diversification picture.

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