Politics On The Edge, Following Assassination AttemptDecember 2009 | Political Risk Analysis
BMI View: While the assassination attempt by his former aide-de-camp appears to vindicate junta leader Captain Mousa Dadis Camara's claims that he does not control the army, it makes an already fragile situation much more volatile. With Camara incapacitated, suggestions for a transition government are likely to be put on hold and elections tabled for January 2010 are extremely unlikely to take place. Should a violent power struggle between rival military factions develop to fill the vacuum, then we could not discount the possibility of Senegal mobilising troops.
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