Macroeconomic Forecast Iran

We expect the Iranian rial to post further losses against the greenback going forward, and we forecast it to average IRR11,200/US$ and IRR12,600/US$ in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Indeed, while the currency has depreciated by an average 3.3% between January 2003 and January 2011, we expect macroeconomic imbalances to cause a faster rate of depreciation going forward, and we do not rule out the possibility of a massive one-time devaluation.

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