Civil War Risks: Factors To Consider

BMI View: Libya faces the risk of state collapse and civil war, following Colonel Qadhafi's loss of control of the east of the country, and the absence of a clear process for transferring power to a successor. This makes the situation in Libya far more dangerous and unpredictable than the recent transitions in Egypt and Tunisia. Even if Qadhafi were to depart quickly, it will take a long time to heal the country's wounds, meaning that political risk will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

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