Political Outlook Somewhat Less Sanguine

We maintain our view that Tunisia's domestic political scene is rife with risks to a successful political transition, and our outlook on the country's future stability is now somewhat less sanguine than previously (see our online service, April 27, 'Transition Making Progress, But Risks Remain'). While Tunisia's political and security situation has certainly improved since the fall of former president Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, we note that a number of risks to a smooth political transition process are playing out. The postponement of the country's first post-uprising elections, a sense of disconnect between the country's political elite and the rest of the population, and reports of brutality from the security apparatus have augmented the sense of uncertainty among the Tunisian public regarding the country's political future.

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