Macroeconomic Forecast Algeria

Despite the rise in global food commodity prices, coupled with Algeria's reliance on imports, government subsidies have kept headline consumer price inflation stable in Q111, a pattern which we expect to continue. We thus forecast CPI to average 4.0% in 2011, unchanged from 2010. That said, with the government having announced massive spending this year, a rise in prices cannot be ruled out, posing upside risks to our

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