Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt

Consumer price inflation in Egypt took a sharp leg down in July according to recently released data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization, with the headline print dropping to 10.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 11.8% in June and May respectively. Although we are holding to our forecast that sees consumer price inflation coming in at 10.4% at end-2011, and interest rates remaining on hold at 9.75%, we believe there are now growing downside risks to these projections.

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