Regime In-Fighting To Intensify Ahead of 2012 Elections

Iran's upcoming March 2012 parliamentary elections will amplify disaffection among wide swathes of the population and increase political in-fighting among the conservative establishment. This will heighten political risks that we have long highlighted. With reformist leaders such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi under house arrest since February 2011 and centrist politicians such as Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani out of the spotlight, political battles within the conservative camp have intensified. Indeed, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his hard-line allies have been engaged in a fierce and increasingly public power struggle with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the rest of the clerical establishment in recent months. This conflict is undermining the foundations of the Islamic Republic in our view, and the upcoming election will only fuel the contest, putting the country one step closer to political, economic, and social collapse.

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