Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

Libyan authorities are looking to return crude to the export market immediately. Bloomberg reported on September 8 that a 600,000 barrel crude cargo was to be loaded September 15-17 at the western Mellitah terminal. This terminal is fed by pipelines from the offshore Bouri field and the southern onshore al-Sharara fields (marked as 'Awbari fields' in map above). The possibility of western fields coming onstream presents upside risks to our view of Libya boosting crude output to 200,000-300,000b/d by end-2011, but it is increasingly apparent that full pre-war output of 1.6mn b/d is unlikely before H212.

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