Political Vacuum To Continue In Near Term

An accord reached by Tunisia's twelve largest political parties on September 15 to plan the country's democratic transition is a positive sign of cooperation, but we note that instability - and therefore slow growth - will remain even in 2012. Elections for the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), a body tasked with drafting a new constitution, will be held on October 25, and party leaders have recently agreed to give the group one year from that date to finalise the constitution and hold parliamentary elections, stating that they hoped to minimise the risk of instability. The recent accord also sets a code of conduct for electoral candidates to promote fair campaigning, and formalises the termination of the transition government once a new president is elected.

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