Macroeconomic Forecast Yemen

On the back of ongoing political unrest, we are revising down our forecast for Yemen's current accounts. We now project a current account deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2011, compared with a deficit of 2.3% of GDP in 2010. We had previously expected an expansion of Yemen's LNG production capacity to push the current account into a surplus of 0.3% this year, but this expansion has been offset by an unexpected decline in crude oil exports, a consequence of an attack on the country's main oil pipeline in the Marib province earlier in the year.

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