Reform Recommendations Augur Sustained Tensions

As a consequence of the lack of genuine reform momentum in Algerian politics, we foresee a sustained elevation in the country's political risk profile. Against the tide of the Arab Spring that has seen a decisive power shift towards Islamist parties in North Africa, the Algerian National Assembly voted to maintain a ban on the main religious party (the Islamic Salvation Front, or FIS). Furthermore, President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika's National Liberation Front (FLN) announced in December its decision to nominate the incumbent for the party's ticket in the 2014 presidential election. These dynamics, which are taking place in an already-tense domestic and regional climate.

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