Long-Term Growth Outlook Highly UncertainFebruary 2012 |
Despite the short-term challenges associated with the country's political crisis, over the long term we maintain a relatively sanguine view on Libya's growth story, with real GDP projected to expand an average 5.1% between 2016-2021. That said, our projections mask the ongoing overdependence on the hydrocarbon sector to fuel growth, with activity in the private non-hydrocarbon sector likely to stay well below potential. More importantly, perhaps, with oil output likely to continue acting as a key driver of economic activity, we are concerned that any new government's sense of urgency to undertake unpopular yet necessary reforms aimed at boosting competitiveness could wane over the long term.
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