Macroeconomic Forecast Morocco

We expect Morocco's fiscal position to remain under pressure in 2012, despite declining food prices and likely inflows of GCC aid. We forecast the deficit falling to 6.0% of GDP in 2012, compared to an estimated 6.1% of GDP in 2011. Moreover, we caution that the longer-term sustainability of the country's fiscal position is dependent on ensuring that recent rises in current spending do not become entrenched, a prospect about which we are increasingly pessimistic.

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