Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

With oil production continuing to come back on stream faster-than-expected, we have revised up our forecast for real GDP growth in Libya to 22.4% in 2012. To be sure, this mainly reflects low base effects following the collapse in economic activity that took place in 2011. Indeed, although detailed data is limited, we estimated that the Libyan economy contracted 39.0% in real terms last year.

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