Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

Libya's security vacuum remains a significant risk to the country's economic recovery. In mid-May protestors were able to shutdown the headquarters of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company for two weeks, demanding greater transparency at how oil revenues are spent and calling for more jobs for youth. Although the economy is expected to rebound swiftly in 2012, much of this is a product of low base effects and an increase in oil production. Lacking an improved security environment, investment in the non-oil economy will remain mini mal in our view.

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