Political Rebalancing On The Cards?

Legislative elections will take place in Algeria on May 10, but we do not see them changing the political status quo this year. In an effort to strengthen the regime's legitimacy, international monitors have been invited, and 18 additional parties have been allowed to participate, for a total of 42. Nonetheless, parliament holds much less power than the executive, and due to a general disillusionment in the political process, coupled with the government's willingness to increase social spending to appease discontent, we do not see large-scale unrest erupting. That said, a good electoral showing for opposition parties could increase medium-term risks for the regime, highlighting its unwillingness to share power even as popular support wanes. This could trigger further discontent, particularly at the outset of presidential elections scheduled for April 2014.

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