Boko Haram: Assessing The Risks

BMI View: The continuing violence of Boko Haram - and the wider issue of increasing attacks based on ideology, political grievances, and revenge - represents a major challenge to Nigeria's future, both in terms of security risks and, increasingly, in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals. We reiterate our belief that most attacks will remain concentrated in the north, posing little risk to the southern economy (including oil production), however Boko Haram's increasing profile poses a longer-term risk to containment if the government is not successful in addressing the threat.

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