Bahrain

Bahrain’s government announced in mid-July that it was to begin banning opposition rallies in order to prevent disruptions to traffic and street violence. An official with the government stated further that the purpose was not to ban rallies outright, but rather, was focused on ensuring a stable security environment. A senior member of Wefaq – the main Shi’a opposition party – responded to this decision by saying that it could result in an escalation in the conflict, as “people now feel no hope”. We hold a relatively bleak view on the prospects for the political crisis to be resolved in the near term, and expect a failure to find a lasting solution to the opposition’s grievances will weigh heavily on the country’s risk profile for some time.

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