Macroeconomic Forecast Saudi Arabia

Balance of payments stability in Saudi Arabia is unlikely to come under any pressure for the foreseeable future. With demand from emerging markets likely to support oil prices in the years ahead, and with the central bank holding more than US$500bn in foreign currency reserves, we see few major risks to medium-term external stability. Nevertheless, in our view the current account surplus has peaked, and our forecasts see it narrowing steadily over the coming years, falling to 11.3% of GDP by 2016.

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