Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt

BMI View: According to a statement posted on the Egyptian Finance Ministry's website in mid-September, Egypt's budget deficit came in at EGP170bn in FY2011/12, which would be equivalent to 11.0% of GDP, and significantly higher than the 8.6% of GDP shortfall the government previously projected. We believe the budget deficit is set to narrow to 8.7% of GDP by the end of 2014, as a reduction in energy subsidies (which we believe will be implemented in order to secure emergency financing from the IMF) helps reduce government spending over the coming years.

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