Macroeconomic Forecast Iran

BMI View: Consumer price inflation (CPI) in Iran increased 23.9% y-o-y in April compared to 21.8% y-o-y in March, reaffirming our view that the headline print will head higher this year. We forecast consumer price inflation in Iran averaging 23.5% and 22.0% in FY2012/13 and 2013/14, respectively, up from 21.8% in FY2011/12. International sanctions and currency weakness will increase the cost of food imports, while cuts to subsidies will keep energy costs high.

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