Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt

February 2005 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Our 2005 growth forecast has risen to 4.4%, based on the assumption that the government implements planned reforms - especially the large tax cuts that have been announced - and does not backslide on the recent currency flotation. Conversely, if reforms falter, growth will be lower, confidence will fall, the pound will weaken and capital outflows will continue. If the government does not rein in the fiscal deficit, interest rates could be higher than we have forecast, which would pose a further downside risk to growth.

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