Macroeconomic Forecast Syria

April 2005 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Oil prices and Iraq both pose key risks to our core scenario of 3% growth in 2005 and 2.5% growth in 2006 and 2007. The resumption of trade with Iraq has played an important role in recent growth and our forecasts assume that the current level of stability in Iraq will persist. However, a worsening security situation would have negative repercussions on crucial non-oil exports, as well as reducing regional stability and confidence. Similarly, with oil accounting for around 50% of Syria's total exports, fluctuations in the oil price presents serious risks to our export, current account and GDP growth forecasts. Our oil price assumption for 2005 is US$33/b, falling to US$28/b for 2006 and 2007

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