Macroeconomic Forecast Qatar

BMI View: Our outlook for Qatar has improved following upward revisions to our oil price and energy output forecasts. We now expect growth of 6.9% in 2006, based on an assumed average OPEC basket price of US61.5/bbl. Although we have increased our oil price forecasts for the whole of our five-year forecast period, we continue to expect prices to cool from 2007. The downturn in the stock market in H1 poses a downside risk to confidence, and may dampen private consumption and investment. However, soaring hydrocarbon revenues mean the government will be able to increase spending if necessary to shore up growth.

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