Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

August 2005 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI's upward revision of its forecast for FY2005 OPEC basket oil prices to US$48.50/b means our GDP forecast of 4.4% for this year now looks overly conservative. In the current price climate, where demand shows no signs of abating, Libya's oil production will continue to grow, averaging more than 1.6mm b/d. At such high prices, oil revenues will exceed US$20bn this year. Boosted by the strong hydrocarbons performance, exports are forecast to rise by US$7bn this year to US$26.2bn. This robust oil performance will continue through 2006, when BMI is anticipating an average oil price of US$45/b. In light of the improved outlook for the key

hydrocarbons sectors, we are raising our real GDP growth forecasts to 6% for this year and to 4.3% in 2006, allowing nominal GDP to exceed US$25bn next year.

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