Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

October 2005 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Even if oil prices under-hit the spot price trajectory, Libya's medium-term outlook is strong enough to assure a substantial current account surplus equivalent to around 25% of GDP in the 2005-2009 period, according to the IMF. Based on our current robust oil price and production forecasts for Libya, we anticipate that the external current account surplus could yet exceed this. Much will depend on how the revival of Libya's trade relations pans out. Once full diplomatic relations with the US are restored, there could be a significant rise in imports into Libya, which would add a downside risk to our

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