Macroeconomic Forecast Algeria

November 2005 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: We expect the trade surplus, already substantial in 2004 at an estimated US$21bn, to grow further in 2005 to US$29.2bn, as export growth of 32.2% outstrips import growth of 19%. As oil prices soften in 2006, the trade balance will also fall to US$23.5bn. Preliminary data confirm these trends but present some downside risks to the expected rate of export and trade balance growth. The January-September trade surplus rose by 36.3% y-o-y to US$15.56bn, according to customs data, with imports up 17.9% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues, which account for more than 98% of exports, rose 26.3% to US$31.28bn over the same period.

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