Macroeconomic Forecast Morocco

Late and light rains have led to worries about another poor agricultural campaign, although there has been some improvement in November. October rain levels in the northern Tangiers-Asilah region were reported to be 14% lower than last year’s already poor levels. BMI currently predicts growth of just 1.3% for 2005 as a whole, although stronger than expected Q2 growth indicates a small amount of upside risk to this. Another dry winter would conversely suggest some downside risk to our 2006 growth forecast of just over 3.4%, although non-agricultural growth is likely to be stronger than in 2005

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