Macroeconomic Forecast Morocco

With reports from the all-important month of March indicating the likelihood of a largely good harvest this year, despite fears surrounding initially poor weather, we have significantly upped our forecast for 2006 real GDP growth to 5.3%. Strong early tourism figures also bode well, and there remains some upside risk, although downside risks such as bird flu cannot be ignored. 2006 growth will therefore approach the 6% needed annually to reduce poverty; however, this is unfortunately not the beginning of a high-growth trend. Growth rates will be high largely because of a base effect: 2006 represents a good harvest year

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