Macroeconomic Forecast Nigeria

We retain the key macro forecasts we made at the beginning of the year for the time being, pending a thorough overhaul next month. Our oil desk has increased its expectations for oil prices in 2006, so this will be factored into all variables. This would normally imply upside potential for GDP growth, the current account surplus and the budget surplus. However, higher prices could be more than offset by the effect of political violence in the Delta states on oil production, if this violence is sustained (militants were targeting a 1mn b/d shut down during

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