Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt

July 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

We have revised up our forecasts for exports in 2006 and 2007 in the light of better-than-expected H1 data. We now expect total exports to reach US$17.6bn in 2006, which would be a 27% rise y-o-y. This is based on projections of 61% growth in petroleum exports and 7% growth in non-oil exports. For 2007, we have revised our exports projection up to US$19.4bn, which would be a 10% rise y-o-y. Against this backdrop, we expect the current account to remain in surplus throughout the forecast period. However, we continue to assume that oil prices come down from 2007, while oil export volumes suffer a persistent decline. Egypt is set to become a net crude oil importer from 2009 and already imports refined fuel.

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