The Politics Of National Security

Morocco's economic progress has won praise from the World Bank which declared the country as the Middle East and Africa's top reformer, as well as the IMF for its achievements in strengthening economic fundamentals. GDP per capita has been rising since 2001 and the unemployment rate fell below 10% to 9.8% for the first time in 35 years in Q106. This positive picture for economic development, however, does not on the face of it appear to tally with the more precarious political picture where there are fears that militant Islamist sentiment may be spreading beyond the impoverished slums and rural communities. Nevertheless, we believe that the security situation, while serious, has been somewhat overblown, most likely in an effort to discredit non-militant Islamist opposition groups which enjoy wide-appeal amongst the public. Instead, a key risk to domestic stability and hence policymaking comes from a potential backlash as a result of the government's crackdown on moderate and peaceful activity which would see our short-term political rating for the country fall from 66.0 to 60.0.

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