Macroeconomic Forecast Zimbabwe

October 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

There has been little new recent data. The authorities have made much of the 200% fall (compared to August) in the monthly rate of inflation in September y-o-y to 1,023%, but we do not believe that the reduction is indicative of any sustainable trend improvement. There is very little cause for optimism about any aspect of the economy. The rate of decline in output may slow, but only because the base level is now so low, but the financial and monetary indicators can only worsen because of gross fiscal mismanagement. We believe that the impact of the latest policy measures will be minimal, not least they are likely to be revised or reversed in the near future as the government continues with its piecemeal approach to economic management.

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