Macroeconomic Forecast Nigeria

October 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

We now see growth coming in at 7.5% next year, as the oil sector rebounds from this year's contraction (on the back of the Niger Delta militancy), and new facilities come onstream. While oil production fell from 2.58mn b/d to 2.4mn b/d this year (according to preliminary estimates), we see the rate jumping to 2.7mn b/d in 2007. However, a key (an not unlikely) downside risk is that oil production in the delta region will fail to pick up, if the militancy continues or intensifies.

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