Macroeconomic Forecast Morocco

November 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

We have revised our forecasts for real GDP growth this year on the back of a robust Q206 performance, which came in at 2.7% q-o-q or 10.8% on an annualised basis, up from 6.8% y-o-y in Q106. We now expect the economy to expand by 7.39% in 2006, only slightly higher than our previous forecast of 6.9% growth. This is largely the result of a bounce-back effect from last year's low base, when agricultural sector contraction led GDP growth to fall to 1.6%, down from 4.2% in 2004. As such, adverse climatic conditions pose a major risk to any forecast scenario, making agricultural sector growth extremely volatile. Nevertheless, looking at past trends, where bumper harvests have been followed by a decline the following year, we expect agricultural growth to slow down, and hence GDP growth to decelerate to 3.5% in 2007.

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