New Forecasts: The Projected Impact Of Paris III

October 2006 | Economic Analysis

BMI View: Based on a core scenario in which Lebanon receives a generous package of aid and loans at the donor conference scheduled for January 2007, we expect the total debt burden to fall from a peak of 202% of GDP in 2006 to around 182% of GDP next year. However, there are several risks, and in a worst case scenario, whereby funding did not materialise, it could just continue to spiral. Even in this case, though, we would not expect to see a default.

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