Egypt

October 2006 | Ratings Update

We continue to see the likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood becoming a viable political opposition as low (but not impossible), but the government is evidently taking no chances. US-based organisation Human Rights Watch says that the Mubarak administration has intensified its crackdown on the banned group, arresting nearly 800 members between March and mid-October. We believe that this indicates a certain amount of insecurity on the part of the government. This could potentially lead it to call early elections, in order to ensure a smooth transition to the next leader (possibly Mubarak's son, Gamal), rather than risk a vacuum, should

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