Iran

November 2006 | Risk Summary

With the impasse over its nuclear programme, Iran remains in political limbo. UN Security Council powers Britain and France as well as Germany have circulated a draft resolution, which has been rejected by Russia, despite the fact that the 'modest' sanctions regime excludes restrictions on the Bushehr nuclear plant. With the Democrat successes in US congressional elections and Iraq on the brink of full-scale civil war, the Bush administration is likely to find it difficult to take a hard-line stance on Tehran. Indeed, there are indications that the bipartisan commission, the Iraq Study Group, may increasingly favour US talks with

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