Macroeconomic Forecast Algeria

November 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Forex reserves reached US$70.4bn in the month of August, on account of high hydrocarbon export revenues. We expect a trade surplus of US$38.6bn this year, underpinned by y-o-y export growth of 45.4% and import growth of 25.7% which is in line with our growth assumptions. With hydrocarbons counting for 98.4% of total exports, and our estimate production level of 1.75bn barrels a day (b/d), we calculate that hydrocarbon receipts will reach US$65.7bn (with total exports coming in at US$66.6bn).

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