Macroeconomic Forecast Libya

November 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

With an oil production level of 1.72mn barrels a day, we estimate oil export revenues will reach US$32.9bn this year on an OPEC basket price assumption of US$61.5/bbl. We see this declining somewhat next year to US$29.4bn as a result of lower oil prices and negligible y-o-y growth in oil production levels. Import growth will also remain robust in the short term, spurred on by large capital goods imports as the government ramps up investment on infrastructure and FDI levels rise. Nevertheless, we expect Libya's current account to remain firmly in positive territory for the forecast period, achieving a surplus of 21.6% of GDP next year.

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