Resilient Economy To Remain Robust

January 2007 | Economic Analysis

We have revised upwards our real GDP forecast for 2007 to 4.0% which we believe will be boosted by solid growth in the building and construction sector, commerce and to lesser extent manufacturing. The agricultural sector remains the most volatile component of GDP and thus very hard to predict, and as such we assume a much more modest rate of growth for next year, rather than the highs of around 30.0% y-o-y levels seen in 2006 thanks to bumper crops. With parliamentary elections on the calendar this year, fiscal policy will also remain expansionary - the 2007 budget already envisages

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