Macroeconomic Forecast Iran

January 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Iran's total external debt burden stood at US$24.3bn in 2005, and according to our estimates it will have reached US$25.9bn by end-2006. In the first three months of the Iranian calendar, Iranian total external debt was predominately short-term, with US$15.0bn maturing in 2006 and 2007 and another US$9.7bn spread out over the following years. While the 2006 approved budget saw foreign borrowing rising by 700% to IRR4979.7bn from IRR622.1bn this was likely to be more for balancing purposes. Similarly inflated planned figures for foreign borrowing have not materialised and as such we do not expect borrowing to rise by this much. Nevertheless, the current administration spending splurge and raiding of the OSF reserves is likely to necessitate further financing - although this will become increasingly hard as the unilateral financial squeeze imposed by the US makes access to foreign financing more difficult.

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