Another Year Of Uncertainty - But War Remains A Distant Possibility

January 2007 | Political Risk Analysis

Tensions over Tehran's nuclear ambitions have escalated dramatically with the US military build-up in the Middle East region, reports of an Israeli plan to attack Iran, and President George W. Bush's decision to opt for a 'surge' of troops to stabilise Iraq. However, we believe that the military option for Israel and the US remains only a small possibility. In our opinion, diplomatic efforts led by European powers will continue while Washington will try to extend its unilateral sanctions, squeezing Iran financially and attempt to isolate the country. Further, we expect the February 20 UN Security Council (UNSC) deadline to

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