A Demographic Perspective On Politics

February 2007 | Political Risk Analysis

The incumbent African National Congress (ANC) will likely win the 2009 general election comfortably. But as we have commented recently, the road to that victory will be rockier than any other of the two nationwide votes since Nelson Mandela stepped-down after one-term in 1999, handing the presidency to current state president Thabo Mbeki. For the first time since democratisation in 1994, the ruling party is openly and publicly split over who should lead it and the nation in future. Rival factions and their aspiring standard-bearers seek primacy on the basis of a myriad of platforms such as regionalism/ethnicity, political and

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