Iraq

February 2007 | Risk Summary

The heightened security situation, backed up by more than 21,500 additional US troops, has altered the political balance in Baghdad. Mahdi militiamen have stood down their arms temporarily, apparently calculating that melting away will serve their interests better than an all-out conflict with security forces. But it has not staunched the Sunni insurgents' activities, and it is difficult to gauge the long-term political impact. The Iraqi state still lacks legitimacy and authority, and the prospects of the Baghdad 'lockdown' engineering longer-lasting sectarian peace are slim.

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